My notebook and game recipe was formed off of the classic sports saying, “offense is the best defense”. I believe that the fundamental thought that constantly scoring will result in a win, will apply to March Madness. The predictors I will use are effective fg %, true shooting %, rebounds, only offensive ,three point %, free throw %, point per game true shooting % and points per possession. I added free throw % and points per possession to the recipe because I think it matters if teams can capitalize off stopping their opponent. Finally I added offensive and defensive efficiency due to team needing to stop their opponents while still scoring.
The biggest reason I believe my model did not predict correctly, other than a 15 seed to the elite 8. My model was predominately an offensive/shooting predictor and the teams that shot well all season failed to do so in the tournament.
| The predictors | |
|---|---|
| A mix of efficiencies, ratings and recency bias. | |
| variable | role |
| team_rolling_OE | predictor |
| team_rolling_free_throw_factor | predictor |
| team_rolling_orb | predictor |
| team_rolling_true_shooting_percentage | predictor |
| team_rolling_eFG_pct | predictor |
| team_rolling_turnover_pct | predictor |
| opponent_rolling_OE | predictor |
| opponent_rolling_free_throw_factor | predictor |
| opponent_rolling_turnover_pct | predictor |
| opponent_rolling_orb | predictor |
| opponent_rolling_true_shooting_percentage | predictor |
| opponent_rolling_eFG_pct | predictor |
| TeamResult | outcome |
| By: Alex Kopf | |
As far as mess ups, it is difficult to narrow it down to one. I guess first I would like to see why my model loved Norfolk State so much, sending them to the elite 8.
| East Regional: Round 1 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| I was sure Baylor would lose and Kentucky was Final Four bound. | |||
| Team | Prediction | Win Confidence | Opponent |
| Saint Mary's | W | 91.8% | Wyoming |
| UCLA | W | 87.6% | Akron |
| Kentucky | W | 69.9% | Saint Peter's |
| Texas | L | 49.3% | Virginia Tech |
| Purdue | L | 43.4% | Yale |
| North Carolina | L | 33.8% | Marquette |
| Murray State | W | 64.3% | San Francisco |
| Baylor | L | 18.2% | Norfolk State |
| By: Alex | |||
My model had Norfolk State as a lock against Baylor primarily due to three players on their team shooting 70% on the season. The same problem occurred with South Dakota St, regarded as one of the best shooting teams in the country. The Jackrabbits were shooting 44% from 3 point range all season, against Providence they only managed to shoot 7-23 or 30.4%.
| MidWest Regional: Round 1 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| I was sure SDSU would wipe Providence | ||||
| Team | Prediction | Team 3pt % | Opp 3pt % | Opponent |
| Iowa | W | 35.23548 | 33.56452 | Richmond |
| LSU | L | 32.75161 | 32.76774 | Iowa State |
| USC | W | 35.35806 | 34.76774 | Miami |
| Kansas | W | 36.26774 | 33.38065 | Texas A&M-CC |
| San Diego State | W | 36.65357 | 30.86000 | Creighton |
| Auburn | L | 32.80000 | 38.01613 | J'Ville St |
| Wisconsin | L | 31.38667 | 40.03438 | Colgate |
| Providence | L | 35.23571 | 44.19412 | S Dakota St |
| By: Alex | ||||
As the highlighted cell displays, SDSU shot significantly worse than they had the entire season. I think a majority of the teams that I predicted to win just failed to show up on the big stage and there is not much to predict regarding that. However, next time I would add more of a defensive outlook to counter the offensive heavy model.